Who’ll Win in Kona? Here’s What the Stats Say…

Ironman World Championship Kailua-Kona 2015 October 10 2015 ©DellyCarr Bahrain Endurance Media
Ironman World Championship Kailua-Kona  ©DellyCarr Bahrain Endurance Media

It’s that time of the year. Kona, the Ironman World Championship is almost upon us and experts from all over our sport are attempting to ‘call it’.

That includes the Bahrain Endurance Team who’ve got the number crunchers on the case to work out exactly what the stats are saying…

Triathlon statistician Thorsten Radde, who runs the website trirating.com, says:

  • At least one of the previous years’ podium finishers has made it onto the next year’s podium 87% of the time for both the men’s and women’s races.
  • This means Bahrain Endurance’s strong line-up has a 64% chance of at least one man on the podium, while for the women there is a 59% chance.
  • Based on previous Ironman results and numbers, the chance for a podium finish for men’s champion Sebastian Kienle is 51%.
  • For second runner-up Jan Frodeno, it is 24%.
  • Women’s runner-up Daniela Ryf has a 44% chance of returning to the podium this year.

Team manager Chris McCormack is positive yet realistic of Bahrain Endurance’s chances. He points out, “On the men’s side, Sebastian is given the favourite’s role as defending champion, but defending this title is a very difficult thing to do. In the last 15 years only two athletes have been able to do that on the men’s side.”

He adds, “Jan is a special case as well, with such massive pedigree and a flawless season. If anyone can make it difficult it will be him. He has had the better of Sebastian all year.”

On the women’s side, he sees Daniela Ryf as overwhelming favorite. “More athletes go from second place to the winner’s podium than anything, so she is posed to do that. She has had a single blemish on a two-year season — that being her defeat last year to Mirinda Carfrae on this course. Daniela is a better athlete than she was last year and her season has been flawless. This is her race to lose.”

Let’s see whether or not this team comes away with any winners. To watch coverage of the  massive event try: http://eu.ironman.com/#axzz3nulUnEpE 

Last year’s show is pretty awesome too:



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